Feed Management - May/June 2009

Dairy consumption takes hit

Anew analysis of the consumption of so-called dairy beverages (let’s just say milk) reckons the world uptake grew by only about 0.5% last year, after growing by 2.4%

between 2006 and 2007. Worse, from our perspective, North America was shown to have gone from an annual increase of 0.3% to a decline of 1.9%. For both North American and European markets it was the first time in four years that demand carried a minus sign. But the pain was shared globally, all the same. Out in Asia, folks upped their milk consumption by little more than 0.5% last year and yet the rise recorded for Asian consumption in 2007 had been over 5%.

producers. In the short term it might give us some cheaper whey powder or skim milk but milking herds that lose money will not be buying feeds for long.

The initiative from the co-ops here to support another round of herd retirements is, therefore, to be welcomed even if it does mean there will be fewer cows to feed.

The alternative can be judged from the remark attributed to the president of the National Milk Producers’ Federation, suggesting (for U.S. dairy farmers) it seems likely that 2009 will be “among the toughest years on record.”

The U.S. is not alone in seeking action plans to help out at this time of hardship for the milk production business. Look across the Atlantic and you will find Germany offering the equivalent of about $90 million in aid to its dairy farms, with the money being made available earlier than had been planned

The milk scene is something that we need to watch.
Those producers are our customers.

It seems we do not need to debate too long about whether the economic downturn around the world has affected how much milk is consumed. Nor can there be much room for doubt that milk’s popularity in Asian countries was heavily dented by all those headlines from China about melamine. The only questions are how deep the global slide in demand will go and when it will end. As the saying goes, anyone who knows the answers does not have to worry long about milk — he can start ordering a yacht for his new life of luxury in the Caribbean.

Obviously, the milk scene is something that we need to watch. Those producers are our customers. What is more, we make use of milk products extensively in the diets we manufacture for rearing young animals.

originally. Less happily from our perspective, German newspapers have quoted the farm minister there as proposing that herds reduce their milk output through the simple device of cutting back on the level of concentrates fed to their cows.

Smaller companies in Europe have stepped in with straight subsidies on the producer price. Even so, forecasts abound that the market intervention measures being adopted on both sides of the Atlantic cannot work on their own — there will also have to be a downturn in the volume of milk produced throughout the rest of 2009 before supply and demand are restored enough in equilibrium to bring back a profitable milk price for the producer. Until then, a weak market must be expected for sales of feeds to milking herds, although the outlook for milk by-product prices is predicted to stay as the buyer’s benefit for most of this year. [FM]

H1N1 becomes global concern

At our presstime, the U.S. and global animal agriculture industry got just what it didn’t need: a global outbreak of the H1N1 flu, unfortunately and inaccurately called swine flu. By April 28, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) had confirmed 64 cases in the U.S.

Globally, reports of human cases of the flu had been confirmed in Mexico — which has been hit hard — Canada, the Middle East, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific regions, Spain and the U.K.

There was no evidence that U.S. pigs have been infected, nor is it clear just how susceptible pigs are to this new flu strain that was said to be a combination of swine, avian and human flu.

“Our pork and pork products are safe,” U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Tom Vilsack said. Moreover, the disease cannot be transmitted through food, so a person cannot get H1N1 from eating pork. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160 degrees F. kills all pathogens. That said, because it’s being called swine flu by many, Wall Street analysts were expecting a drop in pork consumption.

Several nations banned imports of pork products from Mexico, and the U.S. states of Texas, California, and Kansas. The U. S. government and the U.S. pork industry denounced the bans.

The National Pork Producers Council was urging pork producers to tighten their existing biosecurity protocols, including restricting public access to barns.